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Ed’s World Market Insights (Week 46): Shutdown Over, Markets Unsettled — AI Wobbles, China Holds Firm, and Rate-Cut Hope Fades

World Market Insights
November 16, 2025•6 min read

Sunday in Gibraltar is always a curious intersection of the serene and the expectant. It is a vantage point for watching the world’s currents shift, all while nursing the city’s finest eggs benedict at Monique’s Bistro, overlooking Queensway Quay.

This morning, however, the taste of London still lingers after a late return from the Beaufort Exhibition at the ExCel Centre. A heartfelt thank-you to all the members who graced the floor, asked and answered curious questions, and to my co-partners for excellent talks, a fabulously manned exhibition, and that camaraderie which remains the notable essence of Beaufort Society.

Now back from wet London, the Mediterranean breeze carries hints of late autumn, and the Rock feels forever perched on the edge of epoch, watching as political dramas, new tech volatility, and global trade gusts swirl just beyond the breakwater. With my coffee in hand, it seems only fitting that—much like the markets—even Gibraltar’s brunch feels both calm and ripe with the threat of turbulence.

And so… let’s cast our eye over a week that refused to serve up easy answers or steady courses.

Recap: Where Week 45 Left Us

Week 45 signed off with investors teetering between hope and anxiety. The Fed’s latest policy pivot provided both relief and riddles: U.S. equities softened, tech favourites took another bruising, and Europe’s defensive instincts held sway amid renewed tariff talk. Commodities confirmed that global nervousness is universal — gold rallied, oil bounced nervously, and digital assets underscored yet again that volatility remains the only constant in 2025.

Last week’s dispatch warned that risk appetite was “on borrowed time” and that both tech earnings and political uncertainty would shape the coming days. Markets certainly delivered: the long shadow of a government shutdown left participants trading blind, while delayed inflation data and a hawkish Fed narrative kept the mood cautious.

Notably, we anticipated week 46 would yield greater scrutiny on tech, the lingering impact of Fed language, and the threat that headlines — not fundamentals — would set the week’s tone. All played out to script, with tech multiples de-rated and patience the only real safe haven.

As forecast, the minutes from the Fed stirred fresh debate on the staying power of this new policy direction, with investors still searching for clarity as the shutdown drama finally crested. Those who heeded the call for discipline and defensive positioning found some comfort, while headline-chasers endured another lesson in humility.

If you missed last week’s full dispatch, you can find it here:
Ed’s World Market Insights (Week 45) – The Fed Blinked, Tech Stumbled, and Tariff Tensions Returned

This Week (46): Shutdown Survivors, Tech Angst & China’s Quiet Resolve

Weekly Market Table

weekly market table

US & Global Equities

US large caps pulled back as the S&P 500 retraced following fading hopes for a December Fed rate cut; the Nasdaq wobbled after a mid-week reversal, while AI names swung between drama and denial.

Europe followed suit, with the FTSE 100 and STOXX 600 dragged lower by exporters and defensive repositioning as rate-cut odds slipped.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell as profit-taking dominated post-earnings and China concerns resurfaced.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng struggled under the weight of weak trade data and ongoing foreign fund outflows.

Small caps managed a modest gain, with the Russell 2000 outperforming amidst policy ambiguity and a messy return of fiscal flows.

Gold, Digital Assets & Other Assets

Gold lost its shine, closing lower as yields rose and safe-haven flows reversed with the collapse in rate-cut expectations.
Bitcoin (CME) fell sharply, reflecting a souring risk mood as crypto erased gains on Fed caution and falling risk appetite.
Oil (WTI) rallied on renewed Middle East supply-shock fears and fresh sanctions news, but remains well below YTD highs.

Macro & Policy

Fed December rate-cut odds fell to 49% as inflation data and FOMC minutes revealed an increasingly cautious central bank; desks trimmed exposure and the “soft-landing” narrative lost its lustre.

Treasury yields drifted lower with the 10-yr at 4.08%, while the Dollar Index stabilised as policy recalibration offset mixed macro inputs.

Government shutdown resolution restored data flows, but policy clarity remains elusive — with jobs data still soft and fiscal signals mixed.

Geopolitical Analysis

US-China trade tensions returned, stoking uncertainty across shipping rates and EM asset pricing, just as new policy pivots emerged from Beijing.

Russian energy tension intertwined with OPEC+ discipline, fuelling fresh volatility for European and Asian refiners caught in a precarious supply dance.

What’s Pertinent This Week (Week 46)?

  • Washington’s New Dawn: Shutdown over after 43 days; data returns but fiscal risks linger.

  • AI Wobble: Tech multiples re-rated as Fed talk cools risk sentiment; AI mania meets monetary gravity.

  • China’s Trade Resilience: Exports rise 8.7% YTD in mechanical & electrical goods — a quiet anchor in a noisy world.

  • Private Equity & Alternatives: Caution prevails; infrastructure & digital rails stay in favour.

  • Geopolitics: Low volatility masks high stakes as OPEC & US-EU trade talks test investor nerves.

Looking Ahead to Week 47

Data finally flowing post-shutdown means focus returns to inflation and Fed messaging. Investors seek any hint that rate cuts aren’t a mirage on the 2026 horizon. Tech remains in the penalty box unless guidance improves; defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities stay favoured.

Credit markets face renewed pressure on weaker issuers, while quality debt draws strategic buyers. Emerging markets remain sensitive to Washington headlines and Beijing signals.

Patience and defensive nimbleness remain the order of the day — until the next data deluge moves the chessboard again.

Ed’s Closing Bell

Week 46 was a Gibraltar brunch with the unexpected, a hearty meal still tinged by last night’s London fog and jet lag. A sincere thank-you to all who made the ExCel exhibition memorable — the support and delivery were much admired.

Markets reminded us that the loudest headlines often echo the least significant truths, and that patience remains the most productive stance. The soufflés collapsed, yet somewhere in the kitchen, real progress was quietly rising.

Sound judgment, a steady hand, and a willingness to let the noise settle — they’ll always come back into style.

As ever, these reflections are solely my own and not those of Beaufort (or anyone wise enough to save their best insights for breakfast). May the week ahead bring clear perspective, hot coffee, and conviction held with humility.

Further Reading

#GlobalMarkets #FedPolicy #AIInvesting #ChinaEconomy #PrivateEquity #InflationWatch #MarketVolatility #CentralBanks #MacroOutlook #InvestorInsights #BeaufortPerspective #RateCutExpectations
- Practicing Chartered Accountant; experienced (25+ years) finance professional for regulated financial services organisations - Director and co-owner of Gibraltar FSC regulated Company & Trust Management Company - Strong financial modelling and financial planning and analysis for FTSE listed financial conglomerate - Treasurer (£1BN of AUM and £250M of regulatory capital) for regulated financial services organisation - Board experienced (both Group and subsidiary) along with leadership chairing committees - Experienced at running large multi located departments and teams - Corporate Finance experience in both technology, private equity and banking M&A - International audit experience UK GAAP, US GAAP, IFRS and Gibraltar GAAP - Strong managerial finance, financial accounting and financial internal control including Sarbanes Oxley audits - ERP implementation experience in Oracle and NetSuite and online accounting systems - Big 4 ACA qualification with treasury, finance, corporate finance and consultancy experience - Cambridge university education

Edward le Feuvre

- Practicing Chartered Accountant; experienced (25+ years) finance professional for regulated financial services organisations - Director and co-owner of Gibraltar FSC regulated Company & Trust Management Company - Strong financial modelling and financial planning and analysis for FTSE listed financial conglomerate - Treasurer (£1BN of AUM and £250M of regulatory capital) for regulated financial services organisation - Board experienced (both Group and subsidiary) along with leadership chairing committees - Experienced at running large multi located departments and teams - Corporate Finance experience in both technology, private equity and banking M&A - International audit experience UK GAAP, US GAAP, IFRS and Gibraltar GAAP - Strong managerial finance, financial accounting and financial internal control including Sarbanes Oxley audits - ERP implementation experience in Oracle and NetSuite and online accounting systems - Big 4 ACA qualification with treasury, finance, corporate finance and consultancy experience - Cambridge university education

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