Sunday morning in Gibraltar, and the Rock is bathed in that steely Mediterranean light, you know, the kind that makes every grand cruise ship look like a freshly polished trophy and every café terrace buzz with memoirs from three continents. The Moroccan wind teases the trees in my garden, and it feels as if some epic crossing is about to begin. In a day or so, the Beaufort team will be on the move, prepping for the Excel show in London mid-next week. There’s a peculiar sense in Gibraltar that you’re forever on the doorstep of history … just beyond the narrow straits, politics, currencies, and fortunes ebb and flow with the same tenacity as the tides beneath Queensway Quay.

This week, the markets themselves seemed similarly poised at a threshold. Week 45 markets lapped up the Fed’s liquidity shift and then promptly wondered if the new direction was more mirage than oasis. It is as if global investors enjoyed their brunch but kept one eye firmly on the kitchen: just because the chef promised a new recipe doesn’t mean the soufflé won’t sink….

And with that let’s cast our eye over the markets ourselves.

Recap: Where We Left Off (Week 44)

Week 44 closed with central banks guiding the narrative, a near-certain rate cut priced by global investors and the curtain rising on the Trump-Xi summit. Positioning for policy risk produced more reward than any earnings season in recent memory, with US, European, and Asian equities all surfing the wave of central bank dovishness. Commodities, however, reminded us that volatility remains a global lingua franca. Oil surged on fresh Russian sanctions, gold shed some hard-won gains, and Bitcoin continued its volatile ballet.

The Week 44 dispatch ended with portfolios balanced carefully between hope and hedges, waiting for clarity on rates, trade, and the hard calculus of geopolitical bluff.

This Week 45: Tariff uncertainty and the Fed’s Endgame

Weekly Market Table

US & Global Equities

US large caps retreated as markets digested the impact of the Fed halting balance sheet runoff; tech, already frothy, led the pullback with profit-taking and a rotation out of AI-linked names.

European equities followed suit, with banks and industrials seeing defensive flows as macro policy distractions crowded out the earnings cycle.

Asia, after a spirited Q3 rebound, saw EM pressure mount with China once again the epicentre of trade worries and supply chain pivots.

Gold, Oil, Digital Assets

Gold closed at $4,001.21/oz, rising 0.14% for the week; this marked a modest safe-haven bid as equity volatility and macro uncertainty encouraged gold inflows, reversing early profit-taking but not breaking out into a full risk-off rally.

Bitcoin dropped sharply to close at $101,286, losing more than 6.5% over the week as risk appetite waned, tech stocks corrected, and speculative sentiment drained; crypto broadly erased most of its year-to-date gains, with Ether showing relative resilience on Friday.

Oil (WTI) ended the week at $59.84/bbl, rallying on supply tensions and Middle East headlines, but remaining far below levels seen earlier in the year.

Macro & Policy

The Fed’s decision to end Quantitative Tightening from December 1 and deliver a 25bps cut was the dominant market driver, providing a reprieve for bond markets but sparking debate about whether this is a signal of impending recession or simply a tactical liquidity reset.

US jobs data came in soft, and continuing government dysfunction further muddied the waters—as policymakers struggled to agree on fiscal plans, markets lost visibility on forward guidance.

The US-China trade spat flickered back into the foreground, with fresh tariff threats and phase-one trade deal compliance reviews unnerving supply chains from Shenzhen to Rotterdam.

Geopolitical Analysis: Gibraltar’s Winds and the Tariff Tango

Sunday in Gibraltar means watching the ferries nose toward Tangier as local expats gossip over churros and strong Spanish coffee. The mood is expectant, but wary—echoing market sentiment as investors wrestle with the implications of both trade sabre-rattling and central banks playing chess with liquidity levers.

US-China uncertainty sharpened shipping rates and EM asset pricing, and Beijing’s signals on policy pivot look increasingly tailored to domestic rather than export interests.

Russian energy tension now intertwines with OPEC+ discipline, leaving European and Asian refiners in a precarious dance—eager for supply, leery of policy flip-flops.

What’s Pertinent This Week (Week 45)?

Week 45 began with that peculiar post-event calm—the kind that settles over trading desks after central banks rewrite the punchline. By Monday, the realization that the Fed would formally end Quantitative Tightening and cut rates by 25 bps had spread from Wall Street’s 40th floor to the fishing piers of Aberdeen.

But just as Gibraltar’s tides can change in a heartbeat, so too can macro fortunes. U.S.-China trade narratives resurfaced with renewed tension—a fresh round of tariff threats from Washington, and Beijing rolling its eyes but quietly shifting supply chains further west. The tech sector, which had danced through most of 2025 with AI-driven bravado, gave back gains as earnings optimism collided headlong with a weak labour report and October’s government freeze dripped into November.

• Fed halts QT, cuts rates, turns spotlight onto job market weakness, forcing allocators to question duration and degree of liquidity impacts.
• US-China trade rhetoric oscillates between threats and blandishments, with tangible impacts on supply chains and emerging markets, especially in the Asia Pacific corridor.
• Tech sector risk rotates into consumer defensives; earnings optimism gives way to reset as policymakers struggle to provide forward signals.

Looking Ahead to Week 46

Week 46 arrives with more questions than answers. The Fed’s pivot will keep desks debating if risk appetite is truly back or merely on borrowed time. Tech’s bruising will draw focus to earnings for signs of a floor, while shutdown headlines and inflation prints threaten to stir volatility at any moment. Portfolio discipline and nimble hedging remain the order of the day, with gold and defensives likely to attract attention as markets test the strength of last week’s policy moves. Tread lightly—this is no time for heroics; patience and flexibility will likely pay dividends as the narrative resets once again.

Ed’s Closing Bell

Week 45 felt like Gibraltar’s brunch; comfortable but touched by unpredictable Mediterranean gusts. Central banks delivered liquidity, but the market’s appetite for risk soured just as the main course landed. Policy noise once again trumped earnings clarity, and those able to hold their nerve when the soufflé collapsed were well placed for the long game.

Markets, much like the tides beneath the Rock, change more quickly than most breakfast menus and sometimes only careful observation let you catch the turn. Go easy on forecasts, heavy on flexibility. The best lessons remain ancient: in geopolitically driven cycles, the real wind comes not from the headlines but from those political and central bank pivots that mark true inflection points.

As ever, these reflections are distinctly my own and certainly not those of Beaufort Capital or anyone shrewd enough to keep market opinions confined to Sunday brunch discussions. If these observations have sparked, challenged, or even provoked renewed inquiry, so much the better. The finest conclusions blend deep research, a healthy dose of scepticism, and—when in Gibraltar—a robust cortado with a Grand Casemates view.

Stay inquisitive, keep sharpening your pencils, and never rest your thesis atop a single central bank or trade summit outcome. This week, from Gibraltar, remember in markets as in brunch, the best outcomes come to those who watch and wait for the turning tide.

Further Reading

• Fed Ends Quantitative Tightening: Davy Wealth View
https://www.davy.ie/market-and-insights/insights/the-davy-wealth-view/2025/october/artificial-high.html

• Market Outlook and Jobs Data: Schwab Weekly Outlook
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/weekly-traders-outlook

• U.S.-China Trade Policy Developments: JP Morgan, ABN Amro
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
https://www.abnamro.com/research/en/our-research/the-week-ahead-12-16-may-2025

• Oil Market Risk and OPEC+: Euronews
https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/11/06/bubble-or-boom-what-to-watch-as-risks-grow-amid-record-market-rally

• Additional Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-end-volatile-week-lower-amid-worst-tech-sell-off-since-april-210026318.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-analysis-sp500-technical-level-tech-ai-stocks-selloff-2025-11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkQVRD81Wbg