A crisp Scandinavian harbor scene at sunrise in Gothenburg, Sweden. Cargo ships line the water under a pale orange sky, symbolising calm after volatility. Overlay subtle financial elements — faint stock tickers, a gold-toned market chart, or globe outline — to reflect global market navigation and the theme of “trading on hope

Reagan’s Ghost, Rosneft’s Reality & the Trump-Xi Countdown: When Markets Trade on Hope, Not Headlines

October 26, 2025•6 min read

Sunday morning in Gothenburg, and I'm sitting by the harbor watching the city wake up after arriving late last night. The Göta älv catches that particular Swedish autumn light... crisp, unforgiving, and somehow entirely appropriate for reflecting on a week that finally delivered clarity after October's chaos.

There's something about Scandinavian Sunday mornings... the measured calm, container ships queuing in perfect order, the sense that even leisure operates on schedule. After weeks of tariff-induced volatility, Week 43 offered something similar: not frenetic recovery, but methodical repricing.

What unfolded was a masterclass in how geopolitical hope can override economic uncertainty. Monday opened cautiously. By Tuesday, whispers of the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for October 30 began shifting sentiment. Wednesday brought White House confirmation, and markets surged. Thursday's US inflation data, cooler than expected despite the government shutdown, cemented the Fed's October 29 rate cut. By Friday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all closed at record highs with nearly 2% weekly gains. Gold retreated from its record run. Oil spiked 6% on Russian sanctions. Bitcoin limped lower. Reagan's ghost made an unexpected cameo in a Canadian trade spat.

From this corner of Scandinavia—where Volvo once symbolized Swedish industrial might and now serves as a Chinese-owned reminder of how global supply chains work—Week 43's lessons feel particularly sharp. The Trump-Xi meeting on October 30 looms as the single most important event for markets in Q4. US sanctions on Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil jolted energy markets, sending Brent crude soaring nearly $4. The government shutdown entered Day 24 with no resolution, but markets shrugged. Ontario's anti-tariff ad featuring Ronald Reagan's voice prompted Trump to terminate Canada trade talks—before quietly resuming them 48 hours later.

My coffee tastes better this morning not because Swedish beans are superior, but because patience—the rarest of trading virtues—finally paid dividends. In markets shaped by summits and sanctions, positioning for October 30 matters more than earnings season. Let's dive into what Week 43 delivered and what it means heading into the Trump-Xi showdown.

Recap: Where We Left Off (Week 42)

Week 42 tested resolve. Late-week selling in Week 41 had delivered COVID-crash intensity for equities and crypto's worst liquidation event in history. Week 42 became the aftermath: narrative whiplash where political tweets moved markets faster than fundamentals.

Monday brought tariff threats. Tuesday delivered Trump threatening to ban Chinese cooking oil imports, wiping $450 billion in market cap. Thursday's regional bank scandals triggered a 6% financials rout. By Friday, a TACO-style pivot (Trump Always Chickens Out) pulled equities back from the brink.

The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 posted modest weekly gains despite extreme intraweek volatility. Regional bank fears dominated as Zions disclosed $50 million in loan losses and Western Alliance alleged fraud. TSMC's Q3 earnings provided relief, reinforcing AI infrastructure demand.

Gold surged to $4,379/oz before pulling back $400 on profit-taking. Oil collapsed for a third straight week, with WTI near $57. Bitcoin continued its October slide, falling 6% as “Uptober” turned into “Rektober.”

Fed rate-cut expectations firmed at 99% probability for October 28-29. Trump’s Friday tariff pivot from “100% tariffs” to “talks are back on track” rescued equities from deeper sell-off.

For private equity, the week reinforced that in policy-driven markets trading blind from data shutdowns, patience isn’t just virtue—it’s survival.

If you missed last week’s dispatch, you can find it here:
Cooking Oil Tuesday, Bank Bump Thursday and TACO Friday; When Markets Grind in the Blind

This Week (Week 43): Reagan’s Ghost, Rosneft’s Reality, and the Trump-Xi Countdown; When Markets Trade on Hope, Not Headlines

Weekly Market Table

US & Global Equities

S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow surged to record highs, driven by Trump-Xi summit confirmation, cooler inflation data, and near-certain Fed cuts. European indices followed, and Asian markets rallied.

Gold, Digital Assets & Other Assets

Gold ended a nine-week winning streak, down 3.3% to $4,113/oz on profit-taking. Silver fell 6.5%. Oil spiked 5.3% on Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions. Bitcoin slipped 1.8% to $111,680.

Macro & Policy

Fed rate-cut odds hit 99% for October 28-29. Government shutdown reached Day 24, yet markets ignored it. US debt topped $38 trillion. Dollar weakened as optimism replaced fear.

Geopolitical Analysis

Trump-Xi Summit: confirmed for Oct 30 in Busan; market’s focal point.
Russia Oil Sanctions: sweeping US sanctions on Rosneft/Lukoil sent Brent up 6%.
Canada-Reagan Ad Drama: Trump briefly cut trade talks over a Reagan voiceover—then resumed.

What’s Pertinent This Week

Rosneft-Lukoil Sanctions: most aggressive Ukraine-related move yet.
Inflation Cools: CPI 3.0% vs 3.1% expected—cements Fed cut.
Reagan’s Ghost: policy theatre now drives market volatility.
Record Highs vs Dysfunction: shutdown drags on, markets shrug.
Gold Correction: -3.3% after 45 all-time highs in 2025.

Private Equity’s Macro Insights

When Summits Trump Shutdowns

Week 43 rewarded patience. Those positioned for Oct 30’s Trump-Xi meeting were vindicated as markets added nearly $1 trillion in cap within 48 hours. Event-driven strategy beat data-driven guesswork.

Energy Shock & Opportunity

Rosneft sanctions reminded investors that commodities reprice faster than equities. Energy-exposed PE portfolios looked smart overnight as supply risks bit.

The Hologic Deal

Blackstone & TPG’s $18.3 billion buyout of Hologic marked the largest medical device transaction in two decades, signalling mega-deals and defensive healthcare plays back in vogue.

IPO Revival

EY reported Q3 IPO proceeds up 89%. Selective stories win; leverage loses. Exit windows are cracked open—but not wide.

What Will Week 44 Bring

Oct 28-29: FOMC Meeting → 25 bp cut certain; watch Powell’s guidance.
Oct 30: Trump-Xi Summit → three scenarios: Breakthrough 30%, Muddle Through 50%, Disappointment 20%.
Other Events: Mag7 earnings, BoC cut, ECB hold, Canada GDP, Argentina midterms.

Strategy: Build optionality, not urgency. Hope will either hold or reprice.

Ed’s Closing Bell

Week 43 was rewarding not for its size (+2%), but for what it proved: patience pays.
Markets can rally on hope when anchored to a clear catalyst. October 30 is that catalyst.
Reagan’s ghost and shutdowns are sideshows — the summit is the main event.

Final Words

As ever, these reflections are my own and not those of Beaufort Capital or anyone wise enough to keep their opinions to Sunday breakfast conversation.
Markets change direction faster than Swedish autumn light across the Göta älv. If you think you know exactly what Trump and Xi will agree on, you probably don’t. Neither do I.

Stay inquisitive, sharpen your pencils, and never bet your portfolio on summit outcomes alone.

From Gothenburg

Week 43: where summits mattered more than shutdowns, sanctions shocked energy markets, and patience rewarded discipline—the lesson is ancient: in geopolitically driven markets, catalysts beat clarity every time.